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Definition

The Miners’ Position Index (MPI) metric is a valuable indicator that evaluates the relationship between the amount of Bitcoin (BTC) mined in the past year and its corresponding moving average over the same period. During bear markets, an increase in the MPI signals a notable trend – miners potentially capitulating and selling their mined Bitcoin at a loss. This phenomenon often occurs at market peaks, serving as a precursor to impending price corrections. Miners, recognizing the need to manage costs and optimize resources, may be prompted to move larger-than-usual amounts of their mined bitcoins during such market conditions. In bull markets, however, the MPI can reveal a different narrative. As market sentiment shifts, miners may choose to combine rewards from block transactions strategically, aligning with the prevailing bullish trend. This metric provides a nuanced perspective on miners’ behavior, helping market participants gauge the ebb and flow of mined bitcoins against market dynamics, transactional costs, and the overall health of the network. This indicator is inspired by Puell Multiple. MPI=365 days moving z-score (Capitulation Index)\text{MPI} = \text{365 days moving z-score (Capitulation Index)} Capitulation Index=Total Miner Outflows in USD365 days moving average (Total Miner Outflows in USD)\text{Capitulation Index} = \frac{\text{Total Miner Outflows in USD}}{\text{365 days moving average (Total Miner Outflows in USD)}}

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Interpretation

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By value itself

  • High: Miners are sending their coins more than usual- Bearish
  • Low: Miners are sending their coins less than usual - Bullish

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By Examining Trend

  • Increasing: Miners are being more involved in selling and increasing their sell - Bearish
  • Decreasing: Miners are being less involved in selling and decreasing their sell - Bullish
Unlike Miners outflow, Bitcoin Miners’ Position Index (MPI) takes the average behavior of miners into account by using 365 days moving average. Also, MPI explains the relative miner’s liquidation behavior compared to the historical average, assuming that most of the outflows from miners are heading to exchanges for selling. Assuming that miners are good at selling their positions at the right price and time as professional traders, MPI is a good indicator for timing exit points (selling) by duplicating their behaviors. This also helps to view miners’ profitability along with Puell Multiple. Puell Multiple

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Use Case

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Spotting Exit Points for Selling: Bitcoin Miners’ Position Index (MPI)

Given the interpretation that Bitcoin Miners’ Position Index (MPI) helps us to spot selling points, we can benefit from the events where the large MPI values occur. In this use case, we utilize one of the well-known market technical indicators called Bollinger-band to detect abnormal MPI values. The below chart illustrates detected spots to exit from the market, selling.