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Data/IndicatorDefinitionInterpretation
Miner

-A miner controls supply on the blockchain by mining blocks.

If mining pools shut down their mining activities for some reason, the network cannot be maintained.

-Find out more on What are Entities?

-The place where additional newly coined amount is generated
Miner OutflowThe outflow of BTC from mining pool wallets

  • High

    A lot of miners’ coins are exposed to selling -Bearish

  • Low

    Only a few of miners’ coins are exposed to selling- Bullish

  • Increasing Miners’ selling power is increasing- Bearish
  • Decreasing Miners’ selling power is decreasing - Bullish
Miner to ExchangeThe total amount of coins transferred from mining pool to exchange wallets

  • High

    A lot of miners’ coins are exposed to selling -Bearish

  • Low

    Only a few of miners’ coins are exposed to selling- Bullish

  • Increasing Miners’ selling power is increasing- Bearish
  • Decreasing Miners’ selling power is decreasing - Bullish
Miners’ Position Index (MPI)Defined as the ratio of the number of all miners’ outflows in USD divided by 365 days moving average of it.

  • High

    Miners are sending their coins more than usual - Bearish

  • Low

    Miners are sending their coins less than usual - Bullish

  • Increasing : Miners are being more involved in selling and increasing their sell - Bearish
  • Decreasing : Miners are being less involved in selling and decreasing their sell - Bullish

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Reason to look for Miner flows/indicator

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Looking into Miner’s cost-benefit model with BTC price

The time point for their selling or even buying provides valuable insights generated from miner’s perspective. Miners spend their money in mining that comes with electricity or maintenance cost which makes them the only entity that follows a typical business model. They are forcibly required to sell some of their mined BTC to cover the costs. This business structure naturally exposes some of reasons behind miner’s behavior. For example, 1) If they sold their BTC regularly with unusually big amount, it could indicate that Miners are selling at over-valued BTC price. 2) If they start to buy BTC instead of collecting fiats to pay for their costs, it could indicate that BTC is under-valued leading the miners to postpone their selling and trying to benefit from the under-valued BTC price. Thus, looking at the behavior pattern of miners could provide investors with market insight that took cost-benefit model of miners into account

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How to look at indicators

This section identifies the look out point for individual indicators. These indicators could be divided by their identity and the usefulness in trading. Each data tracks each feature of miners and put together, they cover multiple aspects and capture movements in miners relatively precisely. If you want to make use of exchange data by figuring out

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1) How many coins came out from miners

Checking the outflow from miners Miner Outflow

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2) How many coins are withdrawn from miners to the exchange

Checking the flow into the exchange is a great way to keep track of coins that could be sold from miners Miner to Exchange

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3) To look out if most of the miners are selling BTC

Due to covering their cost, it is normal for miners to sell their BTC but if most of miners are selling, it could indicate a future price drop or provide top signal Miners’ Position Index (MPI) It is wise to take a look at each indicator according to the number stated above.

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Points to be aware

Just like any flow data, all the outflow from miners doesn’t indicate immediate selling Firm belief in correlation to outflow from miner with price drop will not always be correct because there are several reasons miner send their BTC to other address. 1) Just an internal wallet transfer 2) Sending their BTC to sell in the future 3) Possibility of re-sending BTC to their own wallet from exchange There is also a possibility where miners predicted or wrongfully valued BTC. Even though miners know the cost to generating BTC, their prediction of future BTC price could be wrong and inferring their movement with future BTC price might be misleading. For example, miner’s selling does not necessarily mean a price top and their buys doesn’t correlate to bottom price with BTC all the time. In addition, there are other factors to consider such as the market competitor relation with new-old miners affecting their unexpected cost and recovering cost time preference might differ from halving to halving or by different with miner pools.